Post ADP Commentary

US ADP reported private payrolls increased a solid 202k in December beating the 170k private BLS payroll estimate. Today’s ADP gain exceeds the 157k average “as reported” ADP rise over the past year, and it also beats the 170k 12-month average rise for BLS private payrolls.

The big December ADP rise trims the downside risk for Friday’s jobs report, where we expect a 180k payroll gain, though the big December rise probably reflects some “catch up” for the robust November BLS payroll gain. 

The Dollar edged to session highs following the better than expected ADP jobs report, leaving EURUSD at nine-session lows of 1.1112, and USDJPY at one-week highs of 108.81. Equity futures indicate a slightly higher Wall Street open, while yields are a bit firmer.

Focus will shift to president Trump, who is expected to speak to the nation following the Iran missile attack on US bases in Iraq overnight.

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Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

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