A Bearish Move for USDCAD?

Although fundamentals are not yet effectively forecast, prices have begun to show the rise in the USDCAD slowing down, in part because of a significant level located above the major resistance.

Meanwhile,  the oil price war has contributed greatly to the USDCAD pair. The rise in the pair is  fading, currently matching the position of the peak price in 2016, at 1.4689. It can be ascertained that while the more the price hike is controlled by the slack momentum and the risk and reward profile of the pair, the more attractive the bearish opportunity will be.

However, it is important to understand the enormous uncertainty and volatility in the market today and to understand the threats they pose when trading.

The price of USOIL  is slightly up, returning from a new low of $20.02 and back a little above the low prices of February 2016 –  at the time of this writing the price is still in the range of $26.87 with the possibility of reaching yesterday’s high at $28.24. But price recovery might not be this fast!

Looking at the development of recent Covid-19 outbreak subscriptions, it began to appear that there was a result, with the exit of China from this outbreak even though it is not yet fully recovered. However, recent news shows a positive synergy as China’s economic activity  starts to move again. A relief team from China was also dispatched to assist European, Middle Eastern and Asian countries., as it seems that China was best prepared for this plague. Vaccine preparations have begun to be tested.

USDCAD – Surged higher this week as traders sought relative security from the Greenback and falling crude oil prices that weighed on the Canadian economy. As a result, the pair quickly flew above the 1.4500 level and approached the 2016 high at 1.4667. Now, however, the movement has slowed down, and the pair has carved a long axis under resistance. The RSI is showing reduced momentum and is currently below the 70 level, and the same is also shown from the MACD which signals a decline.

Economic data remaining to be released this week are reports of Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales m/m. This core data is considered a good indicator of expenditure trends. Core data is projected to decline, while monthly retail sales data are projected to increase. The reference resistance levels this weekend are at the prices 1.4500, 1.4575 and 1.4625, while the support levels are at the prices 1.4325, 1.4250 and 1.4175.

USDCAD could continue to rise , if liquidity problems are reignited and crude oil drops further or returns to general risk aversion. However, Thursday’s close signaled that volatility has started to cool, even though it traded at record high levels.

Ady Phangestu

Analyst – HF Indonesia

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