Events to Look Out for Next Week

  • Final Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 07:00) – The initial reading was a dismal record breaking 33.6. Will the final revision offer any hope of a floor for EU manufacturing?

Tuesday – 05 May 2020

  • Interest Rate Decision & Statement (RBA, GMT 04:30)  The RBA meet and are unlikely to move rates below historic lows at 0.25%. A poll by Reuters of 23 economists expects the RBA to leave policy unchanged on all fronts i.e. cash rate and bond purchases with 22 also expecting no more rate changes until the end of 2021.
  • German Constitutional Court Ruling & EU Economic Forecasts (Both Tentative)  The German Federal Constitutional Court is due to announce a ruling regarding the constitutionality of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme. The EU will also announce economic forecasts for all 27 EU member states.
  • ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI  (USD GMT 14:00) – Last month’s reading of this key indicator was another weak, but much better than expected 52.5 (vs 43.5). Today’s reading is likely to plumb new recent lows at 41 versus an all-time low of 37.6 in November of 2008.
  • Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (NZD GMT 22:45) – Quarterly jobs data from NZ will be the first big data release and impact of the virus. New Zealand has had a relatively low-level virus impact compared to many countries with an extensive test, trace & track regime, a rapid lock-down and a low death rates.

Wednesday – 06  May 2020

  • Markit Services PMI (EUR, GMT 07:00) – As with manufacturing the services and composite numbers are expected to make woeful reading expectations range between 13 and 11.
  • ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 12:15) – Lasts month’s record -27,000 will be dwarfed by a contraction of over 20 million as the weekly new unemployment claims have been capturing over the last few weeks.

Thursday – 07 May 2020

  • Trade Balance (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The Australian Trade balance is seen as taking a hit with a rise to 6.8 million AUD, the export /import mix could be severely disrupted.
  • Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference (GBP, GMT 11:00 & 11:30)  The BOE officials have already taken substantial steps in the quest to safeguard markets and liquidity provisions as economies face deep recessions this year. No changes expected in rates or outlook or voting expected. New Governor Bailey has had a tough baptism and with the UK still in the grips of virus lockdown his options remain limited.
  • Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 12:30)– US initial jobless claims dropped last week but still exceed the 3.5 million expected  at 3.789 million. Today the numbers could be under 2 million and if the drop in initial weekly claims continues, this could suggest that the worst might be over, and that the fiscal policy measures are having some mitigating effects on job losses.

Friday – 08 May 2020

  • Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30) –  The April NFP plunge is likely to be in the order of of over -20 million following the record fall in March of -700,00 as the full data is collated. The weekly unemployment reports have documented a huge hits to factories  and service industries from mandatory closures, on top of the demand hit initially associated with the pandemic. A record day is expected .

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Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

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