Inflation is back big time in Germany

EURUSD, H1                

German import price inflation jumped to 6.0% y/y. German January import price inflation came in higher than expected with prices rising 0.9% m/m, which brought the annual rate to a whopping 6.0% from 3.5% y/y in the previous month and indeed the highest annual rate since May 2011. Even excluding mineral oil products the annual rate rose to 3.0% y/y from 1.7% y/y, which together with the uptick in the headline rate to above the ECB’s 2% limit will only add to growing inflation concerns in Germany and add to pressure on Draghi.  The dollar is well bid this morning and EURUSD has remained heavy after logged an eight-day low at 1.0514 yesterday, though the German import data lifted the EURUSD off its lows.

The 1 hour chart show support at 1.0520 and then down to 1.0500 on the 4 hr and Daily charts. To move up the pair need to breach the 1 hr 20 period moving average at 1.0540 and then the 50 period moving average at 1.0555.


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Stuart Cowell

Senior Market Analyst


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