Macron and PMI data boost EURUSD

EURUSD, H1                

The euro is up today, showing an average 0.45% gain versus the dollar, yen and sterling. The common currency has been aided by overall strong Eurozone PMI data for February which, despite the final reading of the services figure being revised slightly lower, point to a broadening in economic activity, feeding upside risk to Q1 GDP data.  The rally was initiated by news from France showing that the latest ODOXA poll of voting intentions for the first round of the French Presidential elections shows independent candidate Macron ahead of Le Pen, for the first time. Other polls still show Le Pen ahead of Macron and while all suggest that Macron will beat Le Pen in a direct contest.

EURUSD slipped under 1.0500 last night and has rallied substantially today, the H4 has broken through the 10 and 20 period moving averages but is currently capped by the 50 period at 1.0562 and 200 period at 1.0600.  The lower time frame H1 also has resistance at 1.0562 in the form of the 200 period moving average. A break and breach of this level and 1.0800 and 1.0600 become the next resistance areas. The H1 RSI is in overbought territory at 73 whilst the H4 has more upside potential at a reading of 56, so there could be an intraday retrace and consolidation from the 1.0560-70 zone.

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Stuart Cowell

Senior Market Analyst


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