The French Election – Three Possible Outcomes

France Goes to the Polls

Good Morning – The first round of the French Elections are under way. The two candidates with the most votes will return for a second round May 9th.

Official exit poll data should be available right after voting ends at 18:00 hrs GMT (21:00 hrs Server Time) , with the final results expected before Asia markets open.

Possible EUR moves and possible out comes (with thanks to Credit Agricole)

1. Best Case – Macron & Fillion (status quo – establishment, EU, EUR and market friendly) EURUSD to 1.10 . CA see about a 15% chance of this happening.

2. Most Likely – Macron & Le Pen (centre vs far right) EURUSD to 1.08 in small relief rally; possibility ?  40% chance.

3. Worst Case – Le Pen & Melenchon ( far right & far left ) Both anti EU – EURUSD – to parity and 15 year lows – less than 10% chance.

All four candidates have around 20% of opinion poll support however, with 30% of French Voters apparently undeclared how they will vote markets are understandably on edge.

IF one candidates polls more than 50% of votes there will be no second round on May 7. Macron or Fillion; EUR rallies, Le Pen or Melenchon; EUR falls.


Click here to access the HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! The next webinar will start in:

Stuart Cowell

Senior Market Analyst


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.