NZDCAD: Upwards Channel


Upwards momentum seems to continue for NZDCAD since mid-June where the pair reverse the downtrend by rallied nearly 150 pips above 0.9527 level on June 14. Strength in the Oil price for the last 4 days weighs the CAD currently. WTI oil prices are over 1% higher but, it is still quite weak since it moves near year’s low, i.e. at $43.88 per barrel.

The NZDCAD seems to get back in the upwards channel observed since April, despite the downwards correction between June 9 and June 13. Hence since June 14, in a 4-hour chart pair seems to move in an upwards channel, making intraday downwards correction. Interesting is the fact that for the last 2 weeks higher high Fractals have been observed, while 200- period EMA supports quite strongly the pair in the 4-hour chart.

Therefore, a Long position in a Daily timeframe was taken with entry at 0.9647, despite the strength seen from Oil the last few days. Support was set near 200-period EMA, i.e. 0.9550.  Targets are on 0.9740 (near year’s high) and 0.9790. Meanwhile, in both Daily and 4-hour charts, MACD is positive and Parabolic SAR turned positive just today.

This week Bank of Canada Outlook focus is on Bank officials. Governor Poloz and Deputy Governor Patterson step into the fray tomorrow. Poloz appears in a panel at an ECB event in Portugal, with no remarks published on the BoC site. Deputy Governor Patterson delivers a speech in Calgary, titled “Markets Calling: Intelligence Gathering at the Bank of Canada” on Wednesday. The speech will be published on the BoC’s website at 14:05 ET. There will not be a press conference, but an audience Q&A will take place. The slate of economic data is highlighted by April GDP on Friday.

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst


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