EURUSD ebbed back into the mid 1.1900s and toward the four-month low that was seen on Wednesday, at 1.1937, reflecting a rebound in the dollar following the correction that was seen in the wake of Wednesday’s less-hawkish than expected Fed statement. The statement will not materially affect expectations for the Fed to high in June and beyond, and therefore the dollar is expected to remain a buy-on-dips trade. Indeed, expectations for a strong April U.S. payrolls report today, coupled with lower levels, elicited some fresh demand for the USD.
On the Eurozone side of the coin, retail sales data for March disappointed at 0.1% m/m growth, which was blamed on the “Beast from the East” snow storm, while the final April Eurozone composite PMI figure — a post-bad-weather snapshot — was unexpectedly revised lower, to 55.1, albeit fractionally from 55.2, paced by a sharp slowing in the German services PMI to 53.0 from 54.1. The timely survey data show that a cooling in what has been robust economic growth is afoot, which has taken the edge out expectations for the ECB to commence a de-stimulation of monetary policy later in the year.
Regarding the NFP, it is widely expect to rise at 190K, noting upside risks following tight initial claims data and remarkable strength in consumer confidence and vehicle sales data. Hence if the outcome beats expectations, therefore it is likely to see “trend following” mode in EURUSD . Resistance is at 1.2011-12 and support at 1.1935 and 1.1870.
Click here to access the HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! The next webinar will start in:
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.