Events to Look Out For Next Week


  • Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The Consumer Price inflation rate is an important measure of changes in the prices of goods and services. Consensus expectations suggest that the inflation rate should stand at 2% YoY in August, with core inflation at 1%, both at the same level as last month.


  • House Price Index (AUD, GMT 01:30)House price developments are important, especially for Australia, given that its banks’ well-standing relies on people’s ability to refinance loans on the basis of rising housing valuations. However, Consensus Forecasts suggests that house prices will decrease by 1% QoQ, more than the 0.7% decrease observed in the first quarter of the year.


  • Interest rate decision (JPY, GMT 02:00) – Event of the Week. With macroeconomic developments still unclear, there is little possibility for an interest rate change by BoJ. However, the statement by Governor Kuroda could offer guidance with regards to the direction of policy actions in the future.
  • Retail Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Price pressure from the sterling losses since Brexit and better-than-expected GDP results point out to rising price pressures. Consensus expectations suggest an increase of 3.4% YoY, compared to 3.2% last month.
  • Mario Draghi Speech (EUR, GMT 13:00) – The ECB president is set to speak at a conference in Berlin. As usual, more hackish than expected is good for the currency.


  • Interest rate decision (CHF, GMT 07:30) – With the CHF fighting with overvaluation and the SNB often intervening in the markets there is not much potential for a rate hike, given that it would further appreciate the Swissy.
  • Retail Sales ex Fuel (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Retail sales are a proxy of spending, indicating where private consumption for the month should lie. Consensus forecast suggests a 0.1% MoM increase for August, a large decline from the 0.9% World Cup-aided growth in July.
  • Philadephia Fed Manufacturing Survey (USD, GMT 12:30) – The index offers an overview of manufacturing conditions within the region of Philadelphia. Usually, a reading above 0 is considered as improving conditions. Current Consensus forecast stands at 15.
  • National CPI Index (JPY, GMT 23:30) – Low inflation rates have always been an issue in Japan ever since the 1990s. The Tokyo index showed positive signs in the latest release, with Consensus forecast standing at 0.9% YoY compared to 0.8% in July.


  • Markit Services, Manufacturing and Composite index (EUR, GMT 08:00) – No change is expected to be observed from August, with the September Composite index expected to remain at 54.5. As always, anything over 50 should be considered as good news for the outlook.
  • Retail Sales and CPI Core Inflation (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Both indicators are of high interest, given that the first issues signals about the path of growth while the latter could be indicative of future policy actions.

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Dr Nektarios Michail

Market Analyst


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