UK Retail Sales Pops Much Higher ahead of key BOE Announcement



A surprise, big beat, for UK Retail Sales in November (they grew by 1.4% when expectations were for only 0.3% and putting the annual growth rate at a very healthy 3.6%) has helped the Cable rate to peak at 1.2694, so far today, below the strong resistance and psychological 1.2700 level. Intra-day support sits at 1.2640-30 ahead of the Bank of England announcement later.

BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee is concluding it’s two-day meeting, with an announcement scheduled for later today at 12:00 GMT. No policy changes are expected, and there are unlikely to be much changed in guidance so soon after last month’s quarterly Inflation Report, especially with Brexit uncertainty having put monetary policy in limbo. Regarding Brexit, all bets are off until the new year, with the UK Parliament winding down for the Christmas recess (today is the final day of debate) and with the London interbank market having entered into the year-end doldrums. The parliamentary vote on the Brexit deal and outline for a future relationship will take place in the week of January 14, before the legislated deadline of January 21. The current best guess remains that Parliament will vote down the deal and, of all the possible scenarios at that point, that a new EU referendum will be the path of least resistance. However, both sides are hardening their stances and the major parties seem to be promoting the PM’s deal (with her much hoped for “assurances” from the EU or a No Deal Brexit. The upshot is the uncertainty for Sterling, Gilts and UK Equities will persist well into the new year.

Click here to access the HotForex Economic calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.