Events to Look Out For Next Week

An important week is coming up with regards to economic announcements, as both the Fed interest rate decision and the UK Parliamentary vote on Brexit Plan B are expected to take place. In addition, NFPs will be out in Friday and a broad range of PMIs and other early indicators are expected during the week.

Monday – 28 January 2019

  • ECB Draghi Speech (EUR, GMT 14:00) – The ECB President is due to testify at the European Parliament in Brussels.
  • New Zealand Trade Balance (NZD, GMT 22:45) – The New Zealand trade balance is expected to have come out in surplus area in December, compared to a deficit in November.

Tuesday – 29 January 2019

  • Case-Shiller House Price Index (USD, GMT 14:00) – Consensus forecasts suggest that house prices should have increased by 5% in November, the same growth rate as in October.
  • Chicago Board Consumer Confidence Index (USD, GMT 15:00) – The Chicago Board Index is expected to have declined from 128.1 in December to 125 in January.
  • UK Parliamentary Vote on Brexit Plan B (GBP, GMT 23:00) – The UK Parliament will decide whether UK PM May’s Brexit Plan B is valid or not. In the case that the Parliament doesn’t approve it, chances of a hard Brexit will increase exponentially.
  • Retail Trade (JPY, GMT 23:50) – Retail trade in the Japanese economy is expected to continue growing, however consensus expectations are that it has grown by about 0.8%  y/y in December, compared to 1.4% in November.

Wednesday – 30 January 2019

  • Consumer Price Index (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Inflation is expected to have remained close to 2% y/y, albeit declining to 1.7% in Q4, compared to 1.9% in Q3.
  • KOF Leading Indicator (CHF, GMT 08:00) – The leading indicator for the Swiss economy is expected to have increased to 97.5, compared to 96.3 in December.
  • ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 13:15) – Employment change is expected to have eased to 178k compared to 271k in December.
  • Interest Rate Decision (USD, GMT 19:00) – No change is expected at the Fed meeting, however, guidance regarding future rate movements is expected.
  • Industrial Production (JPY, GMT 23:50) – Industrial Production is expected to have declined by 0.5% m/m in December, compared to a decline of 1% in November.

Thursday – 31 January 2019

  • Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs (CNY, GMT 01:00) – The Chinese Manufacturing PMI is expected to continue its path in the contraction area, at 49.3 compared to 49.4 last month. The Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to have slightly increased to 53.9 compared to 53.8 last month.
  • Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Euro Area GDP is expected to have increased by 1.2% y/y in the last quarter of the year, compared to 1.6% in the previous quarter.
  • Chicago PMI (USD, GMT 14:45) – The Chicago PMI is expected to have slowed in January, in accordance to the moves of the whole economy, and to have stood at 62.0 compared to 65.4 in the previous month.
  • Unemployment Rate (JPY, GMT 23:30) – The Japanese Unemployment Rate is expected to have declined to 2.4% in December, compared to 2.5% in November.

Friday – 01 February 2019

  • Caixin Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 01:45) – The Caixin manufacturing PMI is expected to have declined to 49.5 in January compared to 49.7 in December.
  • Markit Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The EU PMI is expected to remain in the positive region, at 50.5 in January, the same level as in December.
  • Market Manufacturing PMI (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The UK PMI is expected to have declined to 53.5 compared to 54.2 in December.
  • NFP and Labour Market Data (USD, GMT 13:30) – NFPs are expected to have stood at 168k in January, compared to 312k in December. Hourly Earnings are expected to have grown at 3.2%, the same levels as in December, while the unemployment rate is expected to have remained at 3.9%.
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – The Manufacturing PMI is expected to have increased to 54.3 in January, compared to 54.1 in December.

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst


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