Events to Look Out For Next Week

Monday – 11 February 2019

  • Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The economy’s most important figure, Q4 GDP is expected to be lower at 0.2% q/q following the 0.6% reading for Q2 and Q3.
  • Industrial and Manufacturing Production (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The two indices are expected to have grown by 0.2% m/m in December, with manufacturing production recovering partially from a 0.3% decline in the prior month, while broader industrial output is projected to have edged up from its 0.4% drop.

Tuesday – 12 February 2019

  • JOLTs Job Openings (USD, GMT 15:00) – JOLTS defines Job Openings as all positions that have not be filled on the last business day of the month. December’s JOLTS job openings is expected to improve slightly at 7.06M, following the 6.88M in November.
  • Interest Rate Decision and Statement (NZD, GMT 20:00) – RBNZ is expected to hold the 1.75% setting for the OCR. RBNZ will end the day with the release of the Statement on Monetary Policy along with a press conference at which they will propose how they are planning to formulate and implement monetary policy during 2019.

Wednesday – 13 February 2019

  • Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 09:30) – Prices are expected to have eased in January, with overall inflation expected to stand at 2.0%y/y, compared to 2.1% y/y last month.
  • Consumer Price Index and core (USD, GMT 13:30) – The headline CPI should rise 0.1% in January, after a -0.1% reading in December. Core CPI is estimated to rise 0.2% in January, the same gain as in December. Yearly, the overall core CPI is expected to be up 2.1%, slipping from 2.2% in December.
  • Building Permits (USD, GMT N/A) – Building permits are a known leading indicator of the housing and the overall market. Following the 1.328 mln jump in permits in November, alongside a rise in housing starts to 3.2%, it will be interesting to observe whether housing starts will increase by the consensus 0.3% rate m/m, with permits at 1.290 mln.

Thursday – 14 February 2019

  • Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 07:00) – German Preliminary Q4 results are expected to slow down, at an annualised rate of 0.9%, compared to 1.1% last quarter, further supporting the view for further slowdown in growth rather than contraction next year.
  • Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 13:30) – Retail Sales are expected to have grown by 0.1% in December, compared to 0.2% in November. Retail and ex-auto sales are estimated to rise 0.1% in December, while a flat reading for retail sales is anticipated. PPI is expected to rise 0.1% in January.

Friday – 15 February 2019

  • Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The Chinese CPI is expected to spike to 0.5% following the 0.3% drop in December due to non-food prices.
  • Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 09:30) – Following a correction in December, after the November reading smashed expectations, Retail Sales are expected to grow by 0.1% in January.
  • Michigan Sentiment (USD, GMT 15:00) – The preliminary February Michigan sentiment reading is forecast of 93.0, up from a 2-year low of 91.2 in January and well below the 14-year high of 101.4 last March. Confidence measures have moderated in recent months likely reflecting concerns about global growth, falling oil prices, financial market volatility, and the government shutdown that only recently ended.

*Delayed data from the US Government shutdown is tentatively scheduled for next week.

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

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