Events to Look Out For Next Week

  • Japan Trade Data (JPY, GMT 00:00) – Imports and Exports are important determinants of the Japanese economy. Both are expected to have declined in February, however, as the former is expected to have declined by 5.8%, compared to a 0.9% decline for the latter, and the overall trade surplus is expected to have stood at 320B Yen, compared to a deficit of 1,415B Yen in January.

Tuesday – 19 March 2019

  • RBA Minutes and House Prices (AUD, GMT 00:30) – House Prices are expected to have declined by 2% in 2018Q4, compared to a reduction of 1.5% in 2018Q3, while the RBA minutes should provide guidance as to how dovish RBA members actually are.
  • Average Earnings (GBP, GMT 09:30) – Average Earnings excluding bonus are expected to have grown by 3.4% in January, the same rate as in December. The ILO unemployment rate is expected to have remained at 4%.
  • Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 10:00) – March economic sentiment is expected to have declined to -18.7 compared to -16.6 in February.
  • Brexit Vote (GBP, EUR, Tentative) – The UK Parliament is expected to take another vote on Theresa May’s proposed Brexit agreement before the PM flies to Brussels the following day.
  • BoJ Minutes (JPY, GMT 23:50) – BoJ Minutes are expected to shed more light as to how Japanese policymakers assess the current global slowdown and whether they plan any further policy actions.

Wednesday – 20 March 2019

  • Price Index Releases (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The UK Retail Price Index is expected to have grown by 2.5% y/y, the same rate as in January, with the CPI expected to have increased by 1.8% y/y, also the same level as in the previous month.
  • Fed Interest Rate Decision (USD, GMT 18:00) – While no change is expected in the Federal Funds Rate target, the FOMC press conference could provide guidance with regards to future rate actions.
  • Gross Domestic Product (NZD, GMT 21:45) – New Zealand GDP is expected to have grown by 2.8% y/y, compared to 2.6% y/y in 2018Q3.

Thursday – 21 March 2019

  • European Council Meeting (EUR, GBP, Full Day) – One of the most important European Council Meetings for the year, given that Theresa May will likely aim to provide justification for a Brexit delay, conditional on the UK Parliament not accepting her proposal on the 19th.
  • Employment Data (AUD, GMT 00:30) – While the Unemployment Rate is expected to have remained at 5% in February, employment change is expected to have eased, increasing by 15K compared to 39K last month.
  • SNB Interest Rate Decision (CHF, GMT 08:30) – The SNB is not expected to surprise markets as the Swiss rate is forecast to remain at -0.75%.
  • Retail Sales ex Fuel (GBP, GMT 09:30) – UK Retail Sales are expected to have eased, growing by 0.2% on a m/m basis, compared to 1.2% in January.
  • BoE Interest Rate Decision (GBP, GMT 12:00) – Shadowed by the ongoing political developments in Brexit, the BoE is not expected to proceed with any interest rate actions.
  • CPI inflation (JPY, GMT 23:30) – National Core CPI for Japan is expected to have declined to 0.3% m/m in February, compared to 0.4% in January.

Friday – 22 March 2019

  • European Markit PMIs (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Services PMI is expected to have declined to 52.7 from 52.8 in February, while Manufacturing PMI is forecast to have increased to 49.5 compared to 49.3 last month.
  • CPI Inflation (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canadian core inflation is expected to have declined to 1.2% y/y, compared to 1.5% y/y in January.
  • US Markit PMIs (USD, GMT 13:45) – Similar to Europe, the Manufacturing PMI is expected to increase to 54.7 in March from 53.0 in February, while the Services PMI is forecast to decline to 54.3 compared to 56.0 in February.

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Dr Nektarios Michail

Market Analyst

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