Gold – A One Day Rally or Not?


A trade deal with China isn’t close, according to a senior Trump administration official cited by Axios. The unnamed source said that the differences between the two sides are so great that, in his view, there won’t be a resolution before the end of the year. While there have been conciliatory-sounding remarks from both sides over the last day, doubtlessly intended to calm stock markets, Beijing today communicated via editorials in state-backed media a much tougher stance, blaming the trade war on “one person and his administration and asserting that the US is misjudging China’s “capability and willpower.” As Axios highlighted, this is turning into a contest between President Trump, who faces an election next year, and president-for-life Xi. Trump’s view is that a trade war will hurt China more than the US.

The continuing in intransigence on both sides looks to have triggered a nascent recovery of the Gold market, during a traditionally quiet month. The rally to $1300 on Monday (May 13) following the risk-on spike, has so far failed  to re-trace beyond $1292. The daily chart has support at  $1290, $1285 and significant support is established at the $1270-75 level.  R1  sits at $1302, $1306 is the 50.0 Fibonacci level and R2, with the key 61.8 Fibonacci level at 1316. The higher time frames are mixed with the Weekly chart neutral and the  Monthly chart positive.

The Crossing EMA Strategy (Daily) breached the 20-day moving average (May 7) and  generated T1 at $1294 and T2 also at $1306. The initial Stop Loss was below the 200-day moving average at 1275, which would now have been moved to the entry level at 1284.


Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.