USDCAD holds 1.3400 ahead of data


USDCAD has found a footing after four consecutive days of lower lows. The pair has lifted to the lower 1.3400s, up from the 15-day low seen yesterday at 1.3362. A rebound in the US Dollar has been the principal driver. Oil prices also hit four-month lows yesterday, before rebounding some. USOil crude prices are down nearly 35% from April highs, which, if sustained, will be a negative on Canada’s terms of trade. The Canadian calendar today brings the April trade report, with expectations for a -C$3.0 bln deficit from the -C$3.2 bln shortfall in March. The May Ivey PMI is also due, while tomorrow brings the May employment report, with the market expecting a relatively sedate 10.0k rise after the record 106.6k surge in April that overshot even the most optimistic projections. The unemployment rate is seen steady at 5.7% in May. Capacity utilization, also up tomorrow, is anticipated at 81.0% in Q1 from 81.7% in Q4.

USDCAD on H1 moved higher yesterday from the low, with the Crossing EMA Strategy triggering at 15:00 GMT at 1.3386, running to T1 (1.3394) and closing out this morning at T2 on the retrace under the 9 period exponential moving average at 1.3413, before triggering lower again on the close of the 10:00 candle at 1.3410.  For more details on the simple EMA Crossing Strategy for intra-day time frames watch our video here.

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Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

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