Mid-summer and BTCUSD charged to $13,825, within 3 trading days it was trading below $10,000 again and had collapsed over 30% from high to low. Volatility was back. Since then the volatility has cooled, but the key levels remain the key levels. The 38.2 Fibonacci ($9,400) and psychological $10,000 have provided a support zone and the 50.0 Fibonacci ($11,400) and $12,000 have provide a resistance zone.
Bias has been to the downside from the June 26 high. Today (August 28), the $10,000 level was tested again for the ninth time in the last eleven trading days. A breach below the supply zone and the gap to $8,700 will look to be filled, then $8,000 and the 23.6 Fibonacci level at $7,100. A breach of the Daily trend line and demand zone could suggest another attempt at the 61.8 Fibonacci level ($13,250), the mid-summer high and then $15,000.
The H4 is testing the support zone and the lower trend line and has been below the 20-period moving average from 04:00 yesterday, with RSI neutral at 44. H4 Support is $10,050, $10,000 and the lower Bollinger band at $9,860 with resistance at $10,200-300, the 200 EMA at $10,400 and the upper Bollinger band at $10,500.
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Head Market Analyst
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