Events to Look Out for Next Week

  • Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The UK’s GDP data for Q2 unexpectedly contracted -0.2% q/q. Consensus expectations for July though are at -0.1% m/m.
  • Industrial and Manufacturing production (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The two indices are expected to have declined to -0.1% m/m in July. This could be another indication that  the UK economy is at risk of a technical recession.

Tuesday – 10 September 2019

  • Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The August Chinese CPI is expected to rise to 0.5% following the 0.4% spike in July. The overall reading is estimated to post a gain up to 2.6% y/y.
  • UK labour market data (GBP, GMT 08:30) –  Average Earnings including bonus is A key short-term indicator of the level of pay and can also be viewed as a measure of cost-push inflation. Consensus forecasts suggest that earnings in August should move at the same pace as earnings in July, at 3.7%. At the same time, the unemployment rate is expected unchanged at 3.9% for July.
  • JOLTS Job Openings (USD, GMT 14:00) – JOLTS define Job Openings as all positions that have not been filled on the last business day of the month.

Wednesday – 11 September 2019

  • Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Headline PPI is expected at a -0.1% dip for the PPI headline in August, with a 0.2% rise in the core index. As expected readings would result in a y/y gain of 1.7% for headline PPI that matches the July gain, and a 2.2% y/y rise for the core, versus 2.1% in July. The y/y headline readings is anticipated in a 1.3%-2.0% range over coming months, while core prices should be in a 1.9%-2.3% range.
  • Crude Oil Inventories (GMT 14:30)

Thursday – 12 September 2019

  • Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference (EUR, GMT 11:45 & 12:30) – The ECB is expected to cut deposit rate by 10 bp to -0.50%, with new tiered system to limit the impact. Most analysts are expecting a 10 bp cut in the deposit rate, which would leave it at -0.50%. The repo rate, currently at 0.00%, is likely to be kept on hold for now.  The ECB is anticipated to re-open QE. There even is a risk that the restart of QE will be put on hold for now. With Lagarde taking over from Draghi in November, the pressure on governments to open their purse strings and complement an expansionary monetary policy with fiscal measures will likely increase.
  • Consumer Price Index and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – The headline August CPI is estimated flat with a 0.2% core price increase, following July readings of 0.3% for both. As-expected gains would result in a headline y/y increase of 1.7%, down from 1.8% in July, while core prices should rise 2.3% y/y, up from a 2.2% pace in July. Overall, the inflation outlook remains benign, though we do expect an up-tilt in y/y gains into Q1 of 2020 due to harder comparisons.

Friday – 13 September 2019

  • Retail Sales (USD, GMT 12:30) – A 0.1% August retail sales headline rise with a flat ex-autos figure is projected, following a 0.7% July headline rise with a hefty 1.0% ex-auto gain. Gasoline prices should prove a drag on retail activity given an estimated -3% drop for the CPI gasoline index, and unit vehicle sales should hold steady in August from a 16.8 mln clip in July. Real consumer spending is expected to grow at a 3.6% rate in Q3, following the 4.7% Q2 clip.
  • Michigan Sentiment (USD, GMT 14:00) – The US consumer sentiment fell 8.6 points to 89.8 in the final August print (92.1 preliminary), weaker than expected, after inching up 0.2 ticks to 98.4 in July. The preliminary September Michigan sentiment reading is forecast at 90.5.

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

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