Events to Look Out for Next Week

  • German Factory Orders (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The German industrial orders dropped by 2.7% m/m in July 2019, posting the biggest monthly decrease in factory orders since February, amid declines in both domestic orders and foreign demand. In August it is expected to fall only by 0.4% m/m.

Tuesday – 08 October 2019

  • Industrial Production (EUR, GMT 06:00) – Industrial production in Germany is expected to have dropped in August, reaching 0.3% m/m, higher though than the 0.6%  fall in July.
  • Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Headline PPI is expected to drop at -0.2% for September, with a 0.2% rise in the core index. As expected readings would result in a y/y gain of 1.5% for headline PPI, versus a 1.8% pace of August. We see y/y headline readings in a 1.0%-2.3% range over coming months, while core prices should oscillate in a 2.0%-2.5% range.

Wednesday – 09 October 2019

  • JOLTS Job Openings (USD, GMT 14:00) – JOLTS define Job Openings as all positions that have not be filled on the last business day of the month. July’s JOLTS job openings came out at 7.217M.
  • FOMC Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) – The FOMC Minutes report provides the FOMC Members’ opinions regarding the US economic outlook and any views regarding future rate hikes. FOMC trimmed rates 25 bps, as expected, but with 3 dissents. In the last FOMC statement, on July 31 decision showed mixed views, two dissents for steady policy, two participants who wanted 50 bps in cuts and several wanted steady stance.

Thursday – 10 October 2019

  • Gross Domestic Product and Manufacturing Production (GBP, GMT 08:30) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. August’s GDP is expected to lower to 0% following the 0.3% reading from last month. Meanwhile, Industrial and Manufacturing Production will be out as well. These two indices are expected to have fallen, with both providing a downwards contribution of 0.1% m/m in August.
  • ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EUR, GMT 11:30) – Event of the Week –The ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, similar to the FOMC minutes, provide information with regards to the policymakers’ rationale behind their decisions. In the last ECB meeting, ECB not only cut the deposit rate but also announced a new open-ended asset purchase program, worth EUR 20 bln a month, while removing the time frame in the rate guidance.
  • Consumer Price Index ex Energy and Food (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Consumer Price Index is suggestive of how the economy is performing, with expectations standing flat for the September headline release. A 0.2% core price increase is expected, following respective August readings of 0.1% and 0.3%.

Friday – 11 October 2019

  • Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 12:30) –  August employment revealed a 81.1k jump in jobs, much stronger than expected, following the 24.2k drop in July. However September reading is expected to feel the negative impact of the stampede of global easing as banks look to counter the drag from trade. September’s unemployment rate in Canada is anticipated unchanged at 5.7% m/m, while the employment change is expected to post just 15K jump in jobs.
  • Michigan Sentiment (USD, GMT 14:00) – The preliminary US consumer sentiment for October is forecast at 90.6, 3.2 points below the final in September.

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

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