AUD Dips following Trade Data & RBA Decision

AUDUSD, Daily               

The Aussie dollar has underperformed following the release of Australian trade numbers earlier today, where a tumble in net exports prompted economists to trim Q3 GDP forecasts by up to 0.2 percentage points. The growth data is due tomorrow and expectations are for 0.2% q/q growth, though some analysts are flagging of negative number, which would mark the first GDP contraction in five-and-a-half years. The RBA left policy unchanged at its December review today, as was widely expected, and the statement made only cosmetic tweaks to leave the main takeaway as being that “inflation is expected to remain low for some time.” AUDUSD ebbed to a low of 0.7441, about 30 pips down on Sydney opening levels.

Technically, the Moving Averages are mixed and unaligned with weakness suggested as the pair trades below the 20, 50 and 200 Simple MA’s, the Parabolic SAR and MACD remain positive, whilst the short term RSI is neutral. Resistance remains at 0.7584 (the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement level from the November move down), the psychological 0.7500 and the 200 DMA at 0.7530.  The consolidation is likely to persist and a SHORT entry was taken at 0.7450 with Target 1 0.7400 and Target 2 0.7300.


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Stuart Cowell

Market Analyst


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