AUD rallies and then stalls on mixed jobs report

EURAUD, H1                

Just like NFP earlier in the month the Australian jobs report had a two great headlines but the underlying detail was weaker.  The increase in number of employed people for January beat expectations of 9,700 and came in at 13,500; the unemployment rate too fell from 5.8% to 5.7% again beating expectations of no change.  Also the previous month’s employment change was revised up to 16.300 from 13,500. There are close to 12 million employed citizens in Australia. The AUDUSD rallied and finally breached 0.7700 touched 0.7732 following the data and still holds this significant level so far today.  However, the overall headlines mask a significant decrease  in full-time employees as Business Insider Australia reported earlier …“all of the jobs growth last month came from part-time employment, which surged by 58,300, offsetting a sharp decline in full-time workers, which tumbled by 44,800. By gender, female employment rose by 18,600, helping to offset a drop of 5,100 among males. Over the past 12 months, part-time employment grew by 159,400, or 4.3%. At the other end of the spectrum, full-time employment fell by 56,000, or 0.7%. By gender, female employment grew by 82,100, or 1.5%. That far outpaced employment growth in males which increased by just 2,100, or 0.3%. It’s worthwhile remembering that part time employment captures those who work up to 35 hours per week”

The short term dip in the AUD has prompted a LONG position on the 1 hr chart for EURAUD, entry at 1.3767 and a target of 16 pips at the 14 period ATR 1.3783.  RSI is neutral to rising, MACD and Parabolic SAR remains positive. The 4 hour chart has also broken the 10 period moving average and a reversal to 1.3800 is possible should this hold.

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Stuart Cowell

Senior Market Analyst


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