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German Ifo better than expected, Outlook OK

Market Analysis
2016-07-25_12-01-19

EURUSD, H4            

The German Ifo holds up better than feared, with the overall reading coming in a tad above our forecast, which was already more optimistic than consensus. The expectations index eased to 102.2 from while the current conditions indicator unexpectedly improved and rose to 114.7 from 114.6 in the previous month. This brought the overall index to 108.3, down from 108.7, but versus our median of 107.9 and much higher than Bloomberg consensus of 107.5. Confidence in the construction and retail sectors actually improved and like the PMIs the data confirms that the financial sector has been hit more by the Brexit vote than real sector confidence, at least so far. More than to back Draghi’s wait and see stance.

Yesterday (Sunday) meanwhile, the Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann told reporters after the G-20 finance chiefs’ meeting that German growth will accelerate again in the second half and that the G-20 agreed that the world economy will continue to recover, even if Brexit was singled out as a risk factor and it must not be used as an excuse for expansive fiscal policies.  A “straight bat” as ever from the combative Weidmann.

EURUSD continues to meander lower, currently trading at 1.0980 having been as low as 1.0951, buyers appeared around 1.0960.  Our Daily trade is still open with target 1.0930.

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Stuart Cowell

Market Analyst

HotForex

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