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The French Election – Three Possible Outcomes

Market Analysis
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France Goes to the Polls

Good Morning – The first round of the French Elections are under way. The two candidates with the most votes will return for a second round May 9th.

Official exit poll data should be available right after voting ends at 18:00 hrs GMT (21:00 hrs Server Time) , with the final results expected before Asia markets open.

Possible EUR moves and possible out comes (with thanks to Credit Agricole)

1. Best Case – Macron & Fillion (status quo – establishment, EU, EUR and market friendly) EURUSD to 1.10 . CA see about a 15% chance of this happening.

2. Most Likely – Macron & Le Pen (centre vs far right) EURUSD to 1.08 in small relief rally; possibility ?  40% chance.

3. Worst Case – Le Pen & Melenchon ( far right & far left ) Both anti EU – EURUSD – to parity and 15 year lows – less than 10% chance.

All four candidates have around 20% of opinion poll support however, with 30% of French Voters apparently undeclared how they will vote markets are understandably on edge.

IF one candidates polls more than 50% of votes there will be no second round on May 7. Macron or Fillion; EUR rallies, Le Pen or Melenchon; EUR falls.

 

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Stuart Cowell

Senior Market Analyst

HotForex

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