EU PMIs – The best since the dot-com boom


As I wrote yesterday, “The pair moving above 20-period MA, an intra-day position  at 132.95 was taken with a target at 133.20 and support at 132.75. The EURJPY is in a positive outlook the last two days, hence this drift lower identified earlier, could be considered as simply a correction move of the uptrend. The crossing is moving in the upper Daily Bollinger Bands pattern since yesterday and above 50-Day MA.  Hence this intra- day position complies with the high-term judging by the RSI on the 4-hour chart and Daily chart. ” +25 pips gain on the hourly position.

“The EURJPY faces a strong resistance at 133.25, which was reached 4-times the last 2 weeks. Hence another attempt at 133.25 high is anticipated within the day, after the latest bullish hourly candle seen. If the pair however manage to breach and break this 2-weeks resistance , then further upside momentum anticipated up to the next Resistance seen since September at 133.80-134.00. However on a possible upside failure of pair’s price action to break above 133.25, will indicate a retest of the support seen since September at 131.50.” – Another position was taken on the break of 133.25, with entry at 133.50, gaining +50 pips. Therefore Net Gain is at +75pips.

Today, the euro gained some ground on Eurozone Manufacturing PMI. EURGBP rallied up to 0.8840, when the Eurozone manufacturing PMI was revised up to 60.1 in the final reading from 60.0 reported initially and versus 58.5 in the previous month. This is the best performing since the height of the dot-com boom over 17 years ago.

However in contrast to strong EU data, juxtaposed to uncertainties about the U.S. tax reform bill and Fed tightening projection in 2018, have been keeping all the other Euro crosses underpinned. EURJPY in particular,  returned down to 133.80, after  rallied  to a four-month high, at 134.29 overnight, while EURUSD, is back at 1.1900.

EURJPY, however , despite the spike down seen earlier, seems to hold a support in the 30 minutes chart, at 133.80. Hence if  the closure of the last 30minutes candle is bullish and above 133.80, then  it is likely to see some upside momentum up to 134.10 in short term, since pair failed to break the confluence of  the low fractals, the lower Bollinger Bands Pattern and the 50-period Exponential Moving average.  RSI is at 33, trying to turned above oversold territory.

A break below 133.70, will triggered further intraday weakness for the pair, with next support at 133.25.

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst


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