The dollar has remained soft amid a backdrop of risk aversion, with the apparent hawkish awakening at a number of key central banks prompting a defensive reaction in richly-priced global equity markets. EURUSD consolidated just off yesterday’s 13-month high at 1.1445, earlier and has drifted down to the 1.1400 level a further bout of profit taking could take this pair lower. On the H1 and H4 chart we are looking for an additional 30-35 pip move lower. A short position was entered at 1.1399 with t1 at 1.1386 (fractal congestion) and t2 1.1369 (H4 ATR and next fractal low). RSI is 38 and falling, MACD is negative and the parabolic SAR remains negative. The lower Bollinger band may provide some support as they flatten to neutral at the psychological 1.11400 level.
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Senior Market Analyst
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