Important events are coming up this week, with US, Swiss and Canadian GDP releases. Thursday is the day when the most important data releases will be out.
Monday – 26 November 2018
- EU Summit (EUR and GBP, Full Day Event) – Following the positive news about reaching a Brexit agreement, it is expected that the deal will be finalised over the EU Summit. However, given all the uncertainties which still remain it is not certain that the agreement will be confirmed.
- Leading and Coincident Index (JPY, GMT 05:00) – The indices are expected to come out at 103.9 and 114.6 for September, at exactly the same numbers as August.
Tuesday – 27 November 2018
- Case-Shiller House Price Index (USD, GMT 14:00) – The index, a core indication of where the housing market is headed, is expected to register growth of 5.3% y/y compared to 5.5% last month.
- Chicago Board Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 15:00) – Consumer confidence in the US is expected to have eased slightly in November, at 136.2 compared to 137.9 last month, but still showing strong confidence.
Wednesday – 28 November 2018
- Gross Domestic Product (USD, 13:30) – US Preliminary Q3 results are expected to come out strong, at an annualised rate of 3.6%, compared to 3.5% last quarter, further supporting the view of high growth in the country.
- PCE Prices (USD, 13:30) – The Fed’s favourite inflation measure is expected to have stood at 1.6% in the previous quarter, the same level as in Q2.
- Retail Sales (JPY, GMT 23:50) – Following a slower than expected growth rate last month, Retail Sales are expected to climb to 2.6% on a y/y basis, compared to 2.2% last month.
Thursday – 29 November 2018
- Capital Expenditure Data (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Australia has been facing issues with new capital investments which registered large decreases in the previous quarter. Consensus expectations suggest that private new capital expenditure should have risen by 1% in the third quarter.
- Gross Domestic Product (CHF, GMT 13:30) – Growth in Switzerland is expected to have eased a bit, standing at 3% y/y, compared to 3.4% y/y last quarter.
- PCE Prices (USD, 13:30) – The PCE is expected to have increased to 2.1% y/y in October, compared to 2% last month.
- Pending Home Sales (USD, 15:00) – Home Sales are important because they provide an overview of the actual developments in the housing sector over the previous month. In October, Pending Home Sales are expected to have increased to 0.8% m/m, compared to 0.5% in September.
- Tokyo Core CPI (JPY, 23:30) – Tokyo CPI is usually a good proxy for the Japanese economy’s overall inflation rate. In November, the CPI is expected to have stood at 1%, the same as in October, even though projections may be revised when Retail Sales are taken into consideration.
Friday – 30 November 2018
- Unemployment Rate and Core CPI (JPY, GMT 10:00) – The two important policy-related variables are expected to show a slight reduction in the Euro Area price level growth, at 2.1% y/y compared to 2.2% last month, while the Unemployment Rate is expected to have decreased to 8% from 8.1%.
- Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Annualised GDP for Q3 is expected to come out at 3%, compared to 2.9% last quarter, perhaps paving the way for a rate hike in early 2019.
- Chicago PMI (USD, GMT 14:15) – The Chicago PMI is expected to have increased in November, at 59.0, compared to 58.4 last month.
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Dr Nektarios Michail
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