Following the G20 summit over the weekend, two interest rate decisions stand out in the announcement schedule next week. Still, the event of the week is the NFP data release on Friday.
Monday – 03 December 2018
- Building Permits (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Building permits are a known leading indicator of the housing and the overall market. Following the drop in housing-related loans for Australia, it will be interesting to observe whether permits will increase by the consensus 3% rate m/m, compared to 3.3% last month.
- Manufacturing PMIs (EUR, GBP, USD, GMT 05:00) – The UK manufacturing PMI is expected to come out at 53, registering a strong improvement from last month’s 51.1 number. The Euro Area PMI is expected to remain at the same levels as last month, at 51.1, while the US ISM PMI is expected to increase to 57.8 compared to 57.7 in October.
Tuesday – 04 December 2018
- Interest Rate Decision (AUD, GMT 03:30) – No surprises are expected in the RBA’s interest rate decision, while its statement should provide important insights regarding the future of the Australian economy.
Wednesday – 05 December 2018
- Gross Domestic Product (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Third quarter GDP for Australia is expected to have grown by 2.8% y/y, compared to 3.4% last month.
- Employment Data (USD, GMT 13:30) – US Unit Labour Cost is expected to have increased by 1.1% in Q3, while Nonfarm productivity is expected to have increased by 2.3% in the third quarter, compared to 2.2% in Q2.
- Interest Rate Decision (CAD, GMT 15:00) – The Bank of Canada is not expected to raise interest rates, even though there should be some indications with regards to the future of rate hikes in 2019 in its statement.
Thursday – 06 December 2018
- Trade Balance (AUD, GMT 00:30) – The Australian trade balance is expected to return to more normal surpluses in October, following the larger than expected improvement in September.
- Factory Orders (USD, GMT 15:00) – US Factory Orders are expected to have declined by 0.2% in October, compared to a 0.7% increase in September.
- Household Spending (JPY, GMT 23:30) – Consensus forecasts suggest that the 1.6% decrease registered in September was a one-off thing, forecasting a 1.6% increase in spending in October.
Friday – 07 December 2018
- Job Market Data (USD, GMT 13:30) – NFPs are expected to have increased by 205k in November, compared to 250k in October, in a sign that the US economy keeps performing well. Average Hourly Earnings are expected to increase by 3.1%, the same growth as last month, while the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain at 3.7%.
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (USD, GMT 15:00) – The Michigan Sentiment Index is expected to have decreased to 97.0, compared to 97.5 last month.
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Dr Nektarios Michail
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