Following the strong NFP data, the coming week will provide more information on the status of the US economy. Still, the events of the week are the FOMC minutes and the Canadian interest rate meeting, both on Wednesday.
Monday – 07 January 2019
- Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – In line with its manufacturing counterpart, the PMI is expected to have decreased to 59.7 in December, compared to 60.7 in November.
Tuesday – 08 January 2019
- Unemployment Rate (CHF, GMT 06:45) – Swiss unemployment is expected to have remained at the same levels in December as in November, at 2.4%.
- Trade Balance (USD, GMT 13:30) – Although less important than in other economies, the US trade balance still provides a useful overview of the overall economy and the Dollar supply in the world, especially as reducing it has been one of Trump’s main targets. Still, consensus forecasts suggest that the trade deficit will come out at $54 billion, a slight improvement over the $55.5 billion deficit in October.
Wednesday – 09 January 2019
- Consumer Price Index (CHF, GMT 08:15) – Expectations suggest that Swiss inflation would have stood at 1% y/y in December, compared to 0.9% last month.
- Unemployment Rate (EUR, GMT 10:00) – The Euro Area unemployment rate is expected to stand at 8.1%, the same as in November.
- Housing Starts (CAD, GMT 13:15) – Canadian housing starts are expected to remain positive at 198k, albeit weaker than the 216k November figure.
- BoC Interest Rate Decision (CAD, GMT 15:00) – At the BoC meeting, consensus expectations are that there should be no interest rate change, given that uncertainty over the North America region remains, even though a surprise interest rate move should not be ruled out.
- FOMC Minutes (USD, GMT 19:00) – The FOMC Minutes report provides the FOMC Members’ opinions regarding the US economic outlook and any views regarding future rate hikes.
Thursday – 10 January 2019
- Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – Chinese inflation is expected to come out at a slightly lower level than last month, standing at 2.1% y/y compared to 2.2% last month.
- New Home Sales (USD, GMT 15:00) – New Home Sales are expected to come out at 0.569 million in November, up from 0.544 million in October.
- Fed Powell Speech (USD, GMT 17:00) – Fed Chairman to speak at the Economic Club Luncheon in Washington DC.
- FOMC Member Clarida Speech (USD, GMT 22:30) – FOMC Member Clarida, known for stirring the markets with some of his speeches, will be speaking at New York University’s Money Marketeers event.
Friday – 11 January 2019
- UK Industrial and Manufacturing Production (GBP, GMT 09:30) – Industrial and Manufacturing production are expected to have increased in November, by 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, compared to -0.6% and -0.9% in October.
- Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 13:30) – US Core CPI is expected to have stood at 2.2% y/y in December, at the same levels as in November.
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Dr Nektarios Michail
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