GBPAUD Short on Record Trade Data

GBPAUD, H4               

Overnight the Australian government reported a record trade surplus of AUD3.51 billion for December and also revised upwards the November figure to 2.04 billion, the increase for December was over 70% better than the November figure.  The improvement was the substantial increase in the value of exports as the demand for Australia’s raw materials continued to climb. AUDUSD climbed to an overnight high of 0.7640 and continued weakness in the USD this morning has seen the pair breach 0.7670.  The move stopped out my long position from Monday (January 31) for a 66 pip loss.

GBPAUD looks interesting intra-day and a short position was entered following the break of the 20 and 50 period moving averages, the key 1.6600 level and the reversal of the parabolic SAR at 1.6560. A target on the 4 hour chart would be the around 50 pips at 1.6510 which is 50% of the lower Bollinger band.  MACD is neutral and the RSI is negative.  The risk being any GBP friendly statements from the BOE and Governor Carney later today, 1.6600 remains a key pivot point and psychological level.


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Stuart Cowell

Senior Market Analyst


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