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German Trade Data worse than expected

Market Analysis

EURUSD, Daily             

Germany posted a seasonally adjusted trade surplus of EUR 22.1 bln in May, down from EUR 24.1 bln in the previous month, as exports dropped -1.8% m/m, after rising just 0.1% m/m in April. Imports rose a modest 0.1% m/m after falling -0.3% m/m in the previous month. The three months accumulated trend rate still improved thanks to the strong April number, but the fall back in exports, coupled with weak production and orders data for May confirms concerns about a marked slowdown in growth in the second quarter of the year. Hopes were for a rebound in the second half, but the Brexit referendum will also hit Germany and the Eurozone as a whole so that the overall growth outlook is looking bleaker for the whole of Europe now.

Moody’s have also cut UK and Eurozone growth prospects due to the shock to confidence following the Brexit vote for both areas and the political contagion that could spread.


  • 2016 – down to 1.5% from 1.8%
  • 2017 – down significantly to 1.2% from 2.1%

Eurozone GDP

  • 2016 – down to 1.5% from 1.7%
  • 2017 – down to 1.3% from 1.6%

EURUSD remains range bound prior to the NFP later today around the 1.1075 – 1.1100 zone.


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Stuart Cowell

Market Analyst


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