Profit takers swirling around cable this morning, even the big beat for manufacturing PMI’s has not helped it hold 1.3500. The Markit UK Manufacturing PMI was 58.2 way over expectations at 56.8 and the highest recorded since December 2013. Markit reports that output, new orders, and employment all rose at faster rates. Meanwhile, investment goods new orders increased at its steepest pace since August 1994.
The BoE is widely expected to leave policy on hold at its December 13th-14th Monetary Policy Committee meeting, according to the latest poll by Reuters. All 68 respondents held this view. The poll also found a strong consensus for the UK economy to grow at a 0.3% q/q to 0.4% q/q pace through to June 2019. On Brexit, the overwhelming majority saw that a free-trade agreement would be reached as this would be win-win, but with a 25% risk attached of there being a disorderly Brexit (the scenario whereby the UK exits in March 2019 without a new agreement in place) — down from the 30% chance given in the October poll amid reports that the EU and UK are lining up an agreement on divorcing terms.
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