European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved cautiously higher, Japan underperform as the Nikkei pulled back from record highs and fluctuated with the Yen. It is currently down -0.43% as the Yen strengthened across the board. The Hang Seng recovered from yesterday’s correction, CSI 300 and ASX 200 are also higher, while U.S. and U.K. stock futures are in the red. Investors are turning cautious again and contemplate the recent run higher in global equities. The DAX managed to close above the 13000 mark again yesterday, but yesterday’s inflation warnings from Markit have increased speculation of a higher ECB taper than currently expected and lifted yields sharply and bond markets are likely to remain defensive ahead of tomorrow’s announcement. The focus today will be on the Ifo reading, which is expected to show broadly stable sentiment. The U.K. released the advance reading for Q3 GDP and we are looking for a steady quarterly growth rate of 0.3% q/q, in line with consensus.
Australia CPI slowed to a 1.8% y/y growth rate in Q3 from the 1.9% rate of increase in Q2. The slowing undershot expectations for a steady or faster annual growth rate (we projected 1.9%). CPI grew 0.6% in Q3 (q/q, sa) after the 0.2% rise in Q2. The “core” measures also came in on the soft side. The trimmed mean CPI grew 1.8% y/y, matching the 1.8% pace in Q2. The trimmed mean slowed to a 0.4% clip in Q3 (q/q, sa) from 0.5% in Q2. The growth rate for the weighted median CPI was 1.9%, steady compared to the revised 1.9% pace in Q2 (was +1.8%). The weighted median CPI grew 0.3% in Q3 (q/q, sa) after the revised 0.6% pace in Q2 (was 0.5%). Total and “core” CPI measures remain below the RBA’s 2-3% target band, consistent with no change in rates through the first half of next year. CB’s bank lending survey.
Main Macro Events Today
- UK Q3 GDP – Expectations – 0.3% QoQ and 1.4% YoY
- US Durable Goods – Expectations – CORE 0.5% and Headline 1.0%
- Bank of Canada – Interest Rate Decision, Statement and Press Conference – Expectations – No change to rates but Hawkish outlook
Charts of the Day
Support and Resistance Levels
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