European Outlook: Asian stock markets trended lower in sluggish trading, U.S. tax reform developments remain in focus and disappointing manufacturing data out of China did little to boost sentiment. The Nikkei closed little changed, after swinging between gains and losses, the Hang Seng also moved sideways, while CSI 300 and ASX slipped, the latter despite solid business confidence data, which boosted the Aussie dollar and lifted bond yields. After a quiet start to the week, the calendar is heating up today, with German Q3 GDP data and final October inflation numbers at the start of the session, followed by U.K. inflation data, Eurozone production and Q3 GDP. Central bankers are meeting in Frankfurt Fed’s Yellen, ECB’s Draghi, BoE’s Carney, BoJ’s Kuroda are all scheduled to speak this morning.
German HICP inflation was confirmed at 1.5% y/y, as expected, while German Q3 GDP much higher than expected at 0.8% q/q, up from 0.6% q/q and versus a median forecast of 0.6% q/q. A slight slowdown was expected in the quarterly growth rate as production dynamics seemed to have slowed down temporarily, but while there is no official breakdown, the statistics office reported that net exports were a major contributor to growth in the third quarter of the year, so external demand will have compensated for the somewhat more muted performance elsewhere over the summer. The annual rate jumped to 2.8% y/y. That the German economy continues to race ahead is evident in most data and orders suggest a renewed uptick in manufacturing in the last quarter of the year with growth rates exceeding potential going ahead.
Main Macro Events Today
- UK PPI and CPI- Expectations – a fall to 0.3% m/m from 0.4% and a 2.4% y/y from 2.8%.
- German ZEW – Expectations -a slight improvement in the report up to 20.0 after rising 0.6 points to 17.6 in October. The current situation index should rebound to 88.0 after falling 0.9 points to 87.0 previously.
- EU GDP and Industrial Production – Expectations – unchanged at 0.6% q/q and 2.5% y/y for Q3 and a decline for industrial production by 0.6% , down to 3.2% y/y for September.
Charts of the Day
Support and Resistance Levels
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