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European Outlook:  Asian stock markets mostly moved higher after new highs on Wall Street ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holidays. Optimism over global growth continues to propel indices higher although the CSI 300 retreated slightly after yesterday’s gains, as yields spiked in China, while coming down in Japan, Australia, New Zealand. UK100 and U.S. stock futures are also higher, as are oil prices, with the front end WTI future trading at USD 57.68 per barrel. The European data calendar is pretty empty, with only preliminary Eurozone consumer confidence in the afternoon. Events include a German 10-year Bund auction and the U.K. budget, while in Germany Merkel’s search for a way out of the stalemate continues.

 U.S. equities are back at record highs after their opening lunge higher, propped up by a solid run higher in China on hopes regulators there will managed their shadow banking problems (Hang Seng rallied 1.9%) and hopes that Germany’s Merkel will extricate herself to form a coalition government without calling for new elections (German GER30+0.8%). That spilled over to a pre-Thanksgiving binge on Wall Street, paced by a 1% rally on NASDAQ and followed by 0.6-0.7% gains on the blue chip indices. Speaking of tech, Apple +2%, 3M +1.5% and Microsoft +1.3% are the Dow’s leaders on the upside, while Wal-Mart -0.7% is the deepest decliner. The VIX equity volatility index is 6.7% lower and back under 10.0, well off the 14.51 November high set amid tax cut plan divergence between the House and Senate. That fear now appears to be on the back-burner, though some heavy lifting remains to reconcile the two tax bill versions and sell the unified plan to the public before year-end. Meanwhile, the USDIndex remains around 94.0, while gold rebounded back over $1,283 and WTI crude has consolidated 1.5% higher near $57.92 bbl.

Main Macro Events Today

  • UK Autumn Forecast Statement – Released yearly.
  • US Durable Goods –  Expectations – rise 0.3% vs 2.0% in September due to the hurricane rebound, or 0.4% ex-transportation.
  • US Jobless Claims  & UoM Sentiment- Expectations – revised their decline by 15k to 234k for the week ended November 18, while final Michigan sentiment may be nudged to 98.0 in November  from a preliminary 97.8, down from 100.7 in October.
  • Oil Inventories Expectations – decrease by 1.4 mln barrels.
  • FOMC Meeting Minutes – 

Charts of the Day

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst


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