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European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed south, with the CSI 300 selling off and losing nearly 1.90%, dragged down by bond markets with Chinese yields on sovereign debt but also top-rated corporate notes at the highest level in three years and the 10-year is approaching the 4% mark. More than USD 1 trillion of local bonds mature next year and the bond market rout will make is very expensive for companies to refinance as the deleverage push gathers pace. The Hang Seng dropped -0.32%, the ASX closed unchanged, while Japan was closed for a holiday. With the U.S. also out of the picture today trading is likely to be quieter than usual. UK100 futures are down ahead of a busy local calendar with second readings for German and U.K. Q3 GDP alongside preliminary Eurozone PMI readings as well as French confidence data and the ECB minutes for the last policy meeting, where the ECB announced its new QE program.

FOMC minutes showed concerns over low inflation, with worries that some of the softness could be due to more persistent factors. Remember this uncertainty has recently been brought up by Fed Chair Yellen. The minutes to the October 31 – November 1 meeting said “with core inflation readings continuing to surprise to the downside…many participants observed that there was some likelihood that inflation might remain below 2% for longer than they currently expected.” While that worry was the general thread, there actually was considerable hemming and hawing on whether the weakness was more transitory or was becoming perhaps persistent, as well as what to do about it. Nevertheless, “nearly all participants” affirmed a gradual approach to raising rates, which supports market expectations for a 25 bp hike at the December 12, 13 meeting. Policymakers noted continued strength in the labor market, along with moderate household spending, as consistent with above trend growth. Outlooks on wage developments were more mixed, but overall growth was seen as moderate. There was nothing in the minutes to negate expectations for a December tightening, although the fears that low inflation might be becoming more persistent support beliefs the FOMC might trim its dot plot to two tightening in 2018, from the current three.: The dollar faded further after the FOMC minutes, which showed concerns over low inflation, with worries that some of the softness could be due to more persistent factors. EURUSD topped over 1.1825, while USDJPY sank to 111.15.

Main Macro Events Today

  • German PMI – Expectations – the November manufacturing PMI falling to 60.4 from 60.6 and the services reading to 55.0 from 54.7.
  • EU PMI –  Expectations –the November manufacturing PMI falling to 58.3 from 58.5 and the services reading to remain stable at 55.0.
  • UK GDP – Expectations – 0.4% q/q and 1.5% y/y growth rates.
  • ECB Monetary Policy Metting Accounts
  • CAD Retail Sales – Expectations – at 1.0% m/m in September after the 0.3% decline in August.

Charts of the Day

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst


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