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Mixed US data – EURUSD at 1.1790

Market Analysis


The dollar has traded higher after the mix of data, where revised Q2 GDP was in-line with the improved 3.1% estimate, jobless claims were lower than expected, and the advance August trade deficit was narrower than forecast. EURUSD regected hourly support at 1.1770 and is currently at 1.1790. However the overall picture is still on the downside since pair is still outside the upwards channel and below the 50-Day MA at 1.1830. Interesting pair is also USDCHF which sharply drifted 0.9710, breaking down the short-term triangle and the hourly 20 and 50-period MA.

The 12k U.S. initial claims bounce to 272k in the fourth week of September reflected a delayed Irma boost, following a 22k drop to 260k (was 259k) in the BLS survey week from 281k (was 282k) in the second week and a Harvey-boosted 298k at the month’s start. Displacement of individuals and loss of electrical power last week likely delayed applications, leaving today’s rise. U.S. weekly jobless claims rose 12k to 272k in the September 23 week . The 4-week moving average rose to 277.75k from 268.75k. Continuing claims fell 45k to 1,934k in the September 16 week following the 44k jump to 1,979k previously. The BLS said claims surged in Florida and Georgia due to Irma. U.S. August Advance goods trade deficit narrowed slightly to -$62.9 bln, from a revised -$63.9 bln in July (was -$65.1 bln).

Nevertheless, U.S. Q2 GDP growth was revised up to a 3.1% rate, as expected for the third look at the data, following the 3.0% pace previously.

For the rest of the day, we have some Fedspeeches which is likely to influence US Dollar. Fedspeaks resumes with Fed Vice Chair Fischer, who will discuss “Developments in Central Banking” at a BoE conference in London from 14:15 GMT. Nevertheless after the close last night, Boston Fed dove Rosengren said that low and well anchored inflation allowed the Fed to raise rates more slowly.


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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst


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