NFP Big headline beat however

EURUSD, Daily               

The U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased 227k in January after a revised 157k December gain (was 156k). November’s 204k gain was not revised. The unemployment rate rose to 4.8% from 4.7%. The labour force rose 76k following the 184k rebound in December, while household employment slid 30k versus a 63k gain previously. The labour force participation rate rose to 62.9% from 62.7%. Average hourly earnings edged up 0.1% versus 0.2% previously (revised from 0.4%). Hours worked were unchanged at 34.4 (December was revised from 34.3). As for other details, the private sector added 237k, with the goods producing sector up 45k, construction up 36k, and manufacturing up 5k. The service sector added 192k, paced by a 39k business services gain. Government employment fell 10k. Though the headline jobs number beat expectations, the overall report was mixed and the rise in the unemployment rate and the slower wage growth could give Treasuries some support.

The dollar initially rallied on the better NFP jobs outcome, though quickly reversed lower, likely on the back of the softer hourly earnings figure. EUR-USD traded from 1.0735 to 1.0712 lows before rallying to1.0775, as USDJPY popped to 113.50 (and hitting our 30 pip target from this morning) from 113.15, then fell back to 112.59 lows.


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Stuart Cowell

Senior Market Analyst


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