Strong ADP could mean big variance for NFP


U.S. ADP private payrolls increased 235k in October after a revised 110k September gain (was 135k), with ongoing hurricane noise in the data. The goods sector added 85k jobs, including 62k in construction and 22 in manufacturing. Services added 150k. Leisure jobs increased 45k. Education/health added 39k. But trade/transportation dropped 50k. The USD inched up following the . EURUSD slipped to 1.1616 from 1.1640, USDJPY moved up past 114.20 from under 114.10 and cable gave up the 1.3300 handle down to 1.3290.

We saw a robust 85k October goods employment rise that tracks firm factory sentiment readings, with gains of 22k for factories and 62k for construction, alongside a 150k service employment climb. Workers are included in ADP payrolls even if they miss work due to bad weather, whereas workers are only counted as working in the BLS payroll report (NFP)  if they worked during the BLS survey period. The reported ADP figures also include input from other macro-data that are weather effected, hence leaving some impact. The “as reported” ADP figures have overshot private payrolls in every month since last October’s methodology change except April and June, leaving an average overshoot of 59k. There is upside risk in Friday’s jobs report.

Click here to access the HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! The next webinar will start in:

Stuart Cowell

Senior Market Analyst


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.