France Goes to the Polls
Good Morning – The first round of the French Elections are under way. The two candidates with the most votes will return for a second round May 9th.
Official exit poll data should be available right after voting ends at 18:00 hrs GMT (21:00 hrs Server Time) , with the final results expected before Asia markets open.
Possible EUR moves and possible out comes (with thanks to Credit Agricole)
1. Best Case – Macron & Fillion (status quo – establishment, EU, EUR and market friendly) EURUSD to 1.10 . CA see about a 15% chance of this happening.
2. Most Likely – Macron & Le Pen (centre vs far right) EURUSD to 1.08 in small relief rally; possibility ? 40% chance.
3. Worst Case – Le Pen & Melenchon ( far right & far left ) Both anti EU – EURUSD – to parity and 15 year lows – less than 10% chance.
All four candidates have around 20% of opinion poll support however, with 30% of French Voters apparently undeclared how they will vote markets are understandably on edge.
IF one candidates polls more than 50% of votes there will be no second round on May 7. Macron or Fillion; EUR rallies, Le Pen or Melenchon; EUR falls.
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