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Market Analysis

USDCAD, H1

The dollar has traded without directional bias into the U.S. jobs report. The narrow trade-weighted USD index was net unchanged on the day, at 92.59, as of the early European PM session. The euro was lifted by ECB’s Nowotny’s remarks as he said that there was no need to over dramatize the currency’s appreciation. That followed comments by his colleague Constancio, who said that a reflationary phase has not yet started. Meanwhile USDCAD is traded further down, following the blowout Canadian GDP report from yesterday, and in anticipation of U.S. jobs report in a while. The highlight of the the day of course, is the August employment report, where expected a 190k increase in non-farm payrolls. Following the stronger ADP report earlier in the week, risk is to the upside. The unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 4.3%, while hourly earnings are expected up 0.2% versus the 0.3% rise in July. The August manufacturing ISM is forecast at 55.7 from 56.3. July construction spending is penciled in at up 0.6% from -1.3%, while the final August University of Michigan consumer sentiment index should improve to 98.0 from 97.6. August auto sales will trickle out through the session.

 

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

HotForex

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