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USDCAD capped at 13200

Market Analysis

USDCAD, 1H               

USDCAD has settled at softer levels amid a generally consolidative tone in the U.S. dollar today. The pair yesterday logged a 15-day high at 1.3212, putting in some more upside space form the five-month low at 1.2968 that was seen last Tuesday. The 200-day moving average at 1.3176 on the Daily chart now reverts as a support level, which is presently in play. Oil prices have posted three straight sessions of declines, which, if the nascent trend sustains, may give USDCAD an underpinning. Today however, front-month WTI futures res are down for a third day, earlier clocking a 19-day low at $51.55, having yet again failed at the key $54.00 level earlier this week.  The declines follow an unexpectedly large increase in U.S. crude inventories in the latest reporting week, according to API data. The 14.2 mln barrel increase is the second highest weekly rise on record in the API data series. The median forecast had been for a 2.5 mln barrel increase.

On the 1 hour chart USDCAD broke the crossing 10 and 20 period moving averages earlier this morning and has just spiked down to the limit of the lower Bollinger band and the 4 hour, 10 period moving average at 1.3148.  The MACD and RSI remain negative and the next target and support area is the 50 period moving average at 1.3138. The Daily and 4hr resistance zone is 1.3192 – 1.3203.

 

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Stuart Cowell

Senior Market Analyst

HotForex

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